Predictions for 2024, Revisited
What I said in December 2023 and how I fared
The hazardous occupation
“Trying to predict the future is a discouraging, hazardous occupation,” said Arthur C. Clarke, a storied science writer and futurist.
This rang true particularly in 2024 when so many respected American political pollsters got their predictions wrong about the outcome of the US Presidential Election.
Luckily, that’s not the focus of my newsletter. The Intersection is about how to stay relevant at the intersection of creativity and technology.
If you’re curious about my 2025 predictions, check out my last newsletter Patterns and Predictions for 2025.
Patterns and Predictions for 2025
As 2024 winds down, here are my thoughts for 2025 at the intersection of brands, business, and culture:
For the final issue of 2024, I’m revisiting what I said a year ago and seeing how my thoughts have fared since then.
1. 1 in 10 creative and marketing professionals need to pivot in 2024. Otherwise, #OpenToWork.
Verdict: ✅
According to LinkedIn data from Business Insider, marketing jobs are down by 23.4% in 2024 since 2018. This report indicates a white-collar recession.
I’m sad about this, but it’s our reality. This will continue in 2025.
2. AI dominates performance marketing. By 2025, 75% or more of performance advertising units will be AI-generated.
Verdict: 🤷🏻♂️
We’re not there yet. Several data points suggest we’re moving towards this outcome:
64% of marketers use AI, and an additional 38% of non-users plan to start in 2025.
Nearly 20% of marketers allocated over 40% of their marketing budget to AI-driven campaigns.
85% of B2B marketers use generative AI, and 76% are satisfied with the results.
Many statistics come from performance, digital marketing tech companies, and related publications, skewing the view. However, this is a definite trend accelerating in 2025 and beyond.
3. By 2025, a feature-length animated film is made with the 10-80-10 Rule of AI.
Verdict: ✅
"DreadClub: Vampire's Verdict" (2024): Released in July, this anime-style film by Hooroo Jackson is the first fully AI-generated animated feature. It used MidJourney to generate 17,000 still images, which were animated. "Where the Robots Grow (2024)," released in October, is also a feature-length movie made entirely with AI.
In 2024, Robert Zemeckis directed “Here,” which used deepfake extensively to age and de-age Tom Hanks and other cast. “Better Man,” “Endurance,” and “Hammer: Heroes, Legends, and Monsters” also used AI meaningfully.
In marketing and advertising for large brands, AI remains experimental, like the 1995 “Holidays Are Coming” ad reimagined with AI that faced backlash.
Bad news: The Hollywood strike may not have slowed the AI takeover of filmmaking.
Good news: Many of these movies, especially fiction, have terrible reviews.
4. A major shift in search, a move to contextual discovery in commerce, and safer opportunities in automotive.
Verdict: 🤷🏻♂️
The valuation of Perplexity.AI, an AI-powered search engine, went from $500m in 2024 to $9bn, two years after its launch. While Google dwarfs this, for now, the search paradigm—keywords leading to links—is changing.
Amazon is integrating AI into its shopping experience. One area is AI-summarized reviews that surface the gist of comments so shoppers don’t have to sift through them. Good use of AI but not transformational yet.
While autonomous driving like Waymo could be a reality in more cities, we’re still years away from AI becoming the norm in automobiles.
While we do see the search paradigm slowly shift, habits are difficult to break, especially at scale. Commerce and automotive also will take—need—time to morph. I give myself 🤷🏻♂️ here because my predictions were too generic.
5. AI Pin fails. Vision Pro doesn’t. No Apple car just yet.
Verdict: ✅ & 🤷🏻♂️
In April 2024, Humane launched the AI Pin at $699 with significant marketing. The sales target was 100,000 units, but it received only about 10,000 orders. By June, it was in talks with HP and others about a potential sale.
Apple is expected to sell 500,000 Vision Pro units, generating $2BN in revenue. Reports suggest a 56-57% gross margin, a number most companies would kill for. But by Apple’s standard, it’s a flop.
The Apple Car is dead.
I got AI Pin right, but not quite on Vision Pro. I underestimated Tim Cook’s ability to kill projects.
Extra credit: Creators > Platforms
Verdict: ✅
This was an observation in my Patterns and Predictions for 2022. In 2023, I marked myself 👎 on this. It was too early to tell.
To be fair, what I said was “By 2025, many Creators will be their own Platforms.”
This came true in 2024. We now see clear evidence that power is shifting from platforms to creators.
Spotify paid Joe Rogan $250 million but lost its exclusivity rights. Donald Trump got kicked off Twitter in 2020 but didn’t need it to win in 2024. While most creators have their preferred platform, they are diversifying to stay relevant.
Mega Creators now transcend platforms and brands, giving them sway that didn’t exist five years ago.
Thanks for being a valued reader of The Intersection. Wishing everyone a great end of 2024.
Here’s to 2025.