Patterns & Predictions 2026
What the future holds at the intersection of brands, business, and tech
It’s December, and it’s time to look into the 2026 crystal ball.
Last week, I shared my thoughts from December 2025 and scored myself.
Here are my thoughts on Patterns and Predictions at the intersection of brands and technology in 2026:
TV advertising strikes back
Relevance > Reach
The new era of e-commerce
The next form factor of AI
These are the patterns that I think we’ll see. Let’s dive in and unpack what they mean and what specific changes lie ahead.
1. TV advertising strikes back
Yes, TV advertising. Specifically, CTV.
Two decades ago, many industry self-proclaimed thought leaders decried the death of TV advertising.
They were partially right.
Screen time shifted from TV to phones for younger generations, and TV ad spend dropped. Netflix got people to pay to avoid ads. Now, many are willing to pay $7.99/month to watch it WITH ads.
People are now watching YouTube on Connected TV (CTV). As CTV becomes the growth engine, more brands will return to 15/30/60‑second spots.
Brands with the wallet and patience will invest more in longer-format content.
We’re seeing this: Netflix x ABInBev partnership, F1 movie brand partnerships, or YETI—a brand known for its content—hiring Wieden+Kennedy to level up its content and global reach.
The pendulum swings back.
Prediction: Nike releases an epic film ad around the World Cup; along with strong, innovative products, the stock rebounds above $80 from $63.52 (Dec 2025), but its high was in 2021 at $177.51. There’s still a lot of room.
The last truly ‘epic’ film from Nike (and possibly of all time) was “Write the Future” in 2010. 2026 is Nike’s chance to outdo itself of the recent past and be Nike again.
2. Relevance > Reach
Major advertisers are realizing that, once the holy grail of marketing and advertising, creating reach has become a blunt instrument in a niche‑first world.
In a chat with an advertising exec at a major tech platform, they said global advertisers (think P&G, L’Oréal, and auto companies) now prefer relevance over reach when buying media placements.
Brands may be increasing their advertising budgets for creators and influencers, but that arena has gotten expensive. When those with millions of followers say “I partnered with Brand ___,” it means they got paid well, seven figures in some cases. Those deals are losing effectiveness.
You can’t please everyone.
Don’t try to be something for everyone. Be everything to someone.
Prediction:
ON Running passes $5B in market cap in 2026, up from ~$3.5B in late 2025. This growth is powered by premium positioning and niche loyalty among runners and urban consumers.
Lexus crosses 1M global sales for the first time in its history, driven by trust and premiumization.
Lexus unveiled an impressive line-up of concept cars at the Tokyo Mobility Show 2025 in October.
Lexus will win by being unmistakably premium. You don’t need mass appeal when you earn deep trust from the right buyers.
3. The new era of e-commerce
Conversational Commerce was a short-lived buzzword when ChatGPT launched in late 2022. It has been replaced by Agentic Commerce.
Agentic commerce is when autonomous AI agents find, compare, and buy products on a shopper’s behalf within their preferences and limits.
When you search in Chrome, you get what you need 90% of the time without clicking links. You don’t need to visit e-commerce sites to browse and shop.
Shopping becomes invisible.
OpenAI and Perplexity released their own browsers in an attempt to become the toll booth for online search AND shopping.
They have their work cut out: Chrome and Safari dominate the browser market, with 52-54% and 29-32%, respectively. That positions Google and Apple as the de facto toll booths, especially with credit card information stored at the browser level.
Winners: Chrome and Safari
Loser: ChatGPT
Prediction: In 2026, user traffic to e-commerce sites will decline by at least 5% to 10%, while overall traffic driven by AI agents will increase by over 50%.
4. The next form factor of AI
Two weeks ago, at Laurene Powell Jobs’ Demo Day 25 in San Francisco, giggly Sam Altman and Jony Ive revealed OpenAI’s first hardware device, possibly releasing within two years, without revealing much.
Successful Apple products from the Jobs/Ive era, like the original iMac, iPod, iPhone, MacBook Air, iPad, and Apple Watch, are all redesigns of existing products in simple, clean, and sometimes whimsical ways.
A few prerequisites for the product design of the first mass-adopted AI device:
A reinterpretation of past products (like Meta/Ray-Ban glasses; voice-powered Stream Ring, “the mouse for voice”). New, novelty forms will struggle to gain traction, as seen with Humane AI Pin or Rabbit R1.
A simple, familiar form that can evolve over time
Voice as the primary input interface
What’s old is new again.
Prediction: In 2026, OpenAI will announce its first AI device. It’ll be either a ring or a bracelet you wear, or a microphone-like device that you can talk to.
To summarize, here are the Patterns and Predictions for 2026:
TV advertising strikes back: Nike releases an epic film ad around the World Cup. Along with its strong product line-up, the stock bounces back, but not all the way.
Relevance > Reach: ON Running tops $5B in market cap; Lexus crosses 1M global sales.
The new era of e-commerce: Direct user traffic to e‑commerce sites declines 5–10%, while traffic driven by AI agents increases 50%+.
New form factor of AI: OpenAI announces its first AI device—a voice-powered ring, bracelet, or microphone.
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Really enjoyed this. The reach > relevance thing is quite a relief after all this time of “growth at all costs”. It’s something I’m currently learning more about. How can we still grow brands while ripping up the rule book?